Last week, we examined how the U.S. electorate has changed nationwide from 2010 to 2018. However, these demographic changes at play nationally are even more pronounced at the state level, especially in many of the states that have developed recently into perennial or emerging swing states in state-wide contests.
Compared with national figures, some states have seen even more significant declines in the share of the electorate for non-Hispanic whites without a college degree. Leading the way here are some key electoral states, such as Nevada (-9.1 percentage points), Florida (-7.6), Utah (-7.4), Minnesota (-7.2), Nebraska (-7.2), and Arizona (-7.1).
Table 1: Top 10 States by Decrease in Share of Electorate, Non-Hispanic White with No College Degree Source: 2010 and 2018 American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic White, No College Degree
Non-Hispanic White, College-Educated
Black/African American
Asian
Hispanic
Other
Nevada
-7.9%
-9.1%
1.1%
1.0%
1.3%
4.5%
1.1%
Rhode Island
-6.2%
-8.2%
2.1%
0.5%
0.8%
4.1%
0.7%
Massachusetts
-5.4%
-7.9%
2.5%
1.0%
1.2%
2.5%
0.6%
Oregon
-4.1%
-7.6%
3.6%
0.1%
0.9%
2.3%
0.7%
Florida
-6.0%
-7.6%
1.5%
0.7%
0.5%
4.4%
0.5%
Utah
-3.4%
-7.4%
4.0%
0.3%
0.6%
2.0%
0.5%
Minnesota
-3.6%
-7.2%
3.6%
1.3%
1.0%
0.9%
0.3%
Nebraska
-3.1%
-7.2%
4.1%
0.5%
0.3%
1.6%
0.7%
Arizona
-5.9%
-7.1%
1.2%
0.6%
0.5%
4.3%
0.5%
New Jersey
-5.2%
-7.1%
1.9%
-0.1%
1.4%
3.8%
0.2%
Some of this shift is due to increasing shares of the electorate that identify as Hispanic or Asian. For example, in California, Nevada, Florida, Arizona, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Texas, the Hispanic share of the electorate increased by at least 4 percentage points, compared to the national average of 2.7 percentage points.
Table 2: Top 10 States by Increase in Hispanic Share of Electorate Source: 2010 and 2018 American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic White, No College Degree
Non-Hispanic White, College-Educated
Black/African American
Asian
Hispanic
Other
California
-6.4%
-6.8%
0.4%
-0.4%
1.5%
4.9%
0.5%
Nevada
-7.9%
-9.1%
1.1%
1.0%
1.3%
4.5%
1.1%
Florida
-6.0%
-7.6%
1.5%
0.7%
0.5%
4.4%
0.5%
Arizona
-5.9%
-7.1%
1.2%
0.6%
0.5%
4.3%
0.5%
New Mexico
-5.1%
-5.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.3%
4.2%
0.4%
Rhode Island
-6.2%
-8.2%
2.1%
0.5%
0.8%
4.1%
0.7%
Texas
-5.6%
-6.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.8%
4.0%
0.4%
New Jersey
-5.2%
-7.1%
1.9%
-0.1%
1.4%
3.8%
0.2%
Illinois
-3.9%
-6.1%
2.2%
-0.2%
0.7%
2.8%
0.5%
Connecticut
-4.7%
-6.1%
1.4%
0.8%
1.0%
2.8%
0.1%
Some states saw significant increases in the Asian share of their electorates. Some key states, like Virginia, Nevada, and Minnesota, saw the Asian share of their electorate grow by more than 1 percentage points, compared to the national average of 0.8 percentage points.
Table 3: Top 10 States by Increase in Asian Share of Electorate Source: 2010 and 2018 American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic White, No College Degree
Non-Hispanic White, College-Educated
Black/African American
Asian
Hispanic
Other
California
-6.4%
-6.8%
0.4%
-0.4%
1.5%
4.9%
0.5%
New Jersey
-5.2%
-7.1%
1.9%
-0.1%
1.4%
3.8%
0.2%
New York
-4.4%
-6.0%
1.6%
0.5%
1.4%
2.2%
0.4%
Maryland
-5.1%
-6.3%
1.2%
0.9%
1.3%
2.1%
0.8%
Virginia
-3.9%
-6.1%
2.3%
-0.1%
1.3%
1.7%
1.0%
Nevada
-7.9%
-9.1%
1.1%
1.0%
1.3%
4.5%
1.1%
Washington
-4.3%
-6.9%
2.6%
0.3%
1.2%
1.9%
0.9%
Massachusetts
-5.4%
-7.9%
2.5%
1.0%
1.2%
2.5%
0.6%
Minnesota
-3.6%
-7.2%
3.6%
1.3%
1.0%
0.9%
0.3%
Alaska
-4.7%
-5.3%
0.5%
-0.1%
1.0%
1.9%
1.8%
Immigrant voters are also expected to have more electoral weight in this election than in the past. While overall, the immigrant share of the electorate grew by 1.5 percentage points, states like New Jersey (+3.4), Florida (+2.7), Massachusetts (+2.5), Maryland (+2.2), Nevada (+2.2), and Minnesota (+2.2) saw much faster rates of growth in New American voters.
Table 4: Top 10 States by Increase in Immigrant Share of Electorate, 2010-2018 Source 2010 and 2018 American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples
Eligible Voters, 2010
Share of Electorate, 2010
Eligible Voters, 2018
Share of Electorate, 2018
Change in Eligible Voters, 2010-2018
Change in Share of Electorate, 2010-2018
New Jersey
892,603
15.1%
1,146,778
18.6%
254,175
3.4%
Florida
1,732,571
13.2%
2,430,044
15.9%
697,473
2.7%
Massachusetts
448,421
9.6%
609,246
12.1%
160,825
2.5%
Maryland
348,455
8.6%
469,252
10.9%
120,797
2.2%
Nevada
208,730
11.8%
289,099
14.0%
80,369
2.2%
Minnesota
144,985
3.8%
239,964
5.8%
94,979
2.1%
Rhode Island
62,496
8.1%
81,478
10.2%
18,982
2.1%
Alaska
22,880
4.5%
35,234
6.6%
12,354
2.0%
District of Columbia
29,638
6.5%
44,053
8.4%
14,415
1.9%
New York
2,152,331
16.3%
2,488,985
18.1%
336,654
1.8%
However, like the nation overall, the biggest changes in the electorate at the state level are seen in the change in the share of the electorate that holds a college degree. While the share of the national electorate with a college degree increased by 4.2 percentage points, in some states, it was significantly higher, including in the District of Columbia (+9.6), Massachusetts (+5.3), Maryland (+5.3), Oregon (+5.3), North Carolina (+5.2), Virginia (+5.1), Colorado (+5.1), Nebraska (+5.0), and Utah (+5.0).
Table 5: Top 10 States by Increase in Share of Electorate with College Degree Source 2010 and 2018 American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples
Eligible Voters, 2010
Share of Electorate, 2010
Eligible Voters, 2018
Share of Electorate, 2018
Change in Eligible Voters, 2010-2018
Change in Share of Electorate, 2010-2018
District of Columbia
213,255
46.7%
296,370
56.3%
83,115
9.6%
Massachusetts
1,699,856
36.4%
2,096,590
41.7%
396,734
5.3%
Maryland
1,344,206
33.3%
1,664,823
38.5%
320,617
5.3%
Oregon
749,915
27.1%
1,005,021
32.4%
255,106
5.3%
North Carolina
1,673,304
24.5%
2,262,794
29.7%
589,490
5.2%
Virginia
1,800,198
31.4%
2,265,363
36.5%
465,165
5.1%
Colorado
1,230,357
34.7%
1,648,986
39.8%
418,629
5.1%
Nebraska
337,831
25.7%
423,749
30.7%
85,918
5.0%
Vermont
149,925
30.8%
179,393
35.8%
29,468
5.0%
Utah
461,564
26.1%
647,479
31.1%
185,915
5.0%
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