Voting and Demographics
The growth in the immigrant population has helped to strengthen and remake America over the last two decades. Today, as thousands of baby boomers retire each day, working-age immigrants are filling gaps in the labor market, paying billions of dollars in taxes that help our entitlement programs survive, and buying homes in communities that would otherwise be in decline. Millions of immigrants have also earned U.S. citizenship and the right to vote while millions more are estimated to be eligible to naturalize.
50 Years Later, How Far Have We Come: A Look at the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act
Tomorrow, October 3, marks the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965. On this day 50 years ago, President Lyndon B. Johnson gave a speech from New York’s Liberty Island, introducing to the nation a vision for a more inclusive, more capable… Read More
America’s Rural Counties Face Dire Shortages of Physicians; Foreign-born Doctors Can Help, Report Shows
CONTACT Sarah Doolin: [email protected] New York, NY — Today marks the expiration of the Conrad 30 Waiver program, which permits each state’s Department of Health to sponsor up to thirty foreign physicians to work in underserved areas and waives the J-1 visa… Read More
How Immigration Reform Can Strengthen The U.S. Housing Market
As America’s senior citizens age and retire, they are shifting the balance of the U.S. housing market by downsizing and selling their homes. Americans 65 and older are more likely to be sellers of homes than buyers, creating a potential long-term buyer shortage that would negatively impact home equity. This… Read More
How Immigration Reform Can Strengthen the U.S. Workforce
While the number of U.S. seniors will double in the next 35 years, fewer young workers will replace them in the workforce. Meanwhile, increasing educational attainment and decreasing birth rates mean that the U.S. workforce cannot meet the demand for lesser-skilled workers. Both of these forces contribute to a critical… Read More
Immigration Reform Would Alleviate America’s Aging Crisis, New Research Briefs Show
CONTACT: Sarah Doolin, [email protected] New York, NY—To mark Senior Citizens Day, which honors the elderly and their role in American life, the New American Economy (NAE) released four research briefs that examine the role immigrants play in alleviating the… Read More
How Immigration Reform Can Strengthen The Coverage For U.S. Seniors
Americans are retiring in greater numbers. As our senior citizens age and leave the workforce, an increasing proportion of the population is depending more and more on on our already strained entitlement programs, including Medicare and Social Security. But to stay solvent, these entitlement programs need greater numbers of young… Read More
How Immigration Reform Can Strengthen the U.S. Healthcare System
America is getting older. To meet the growing healthcare demands of the country’s aging population, the United States will need younger workers to fill critical shortages at all skill levels of the medical industry. From physicians and surgeons to home health aides, immigrants can help meet these increasing demands, ensuring… Read More
Medicare at Fifty and the Near $200-Billion Surplus from Immigrant Contributions
CONTACT Sarah Doolin, New American Economy, [email protected] NAE Announces a Two-Month Campaign on Immigration and the United States Healthcare System New York, NY — With tomorrow being the 50th anniversary of Medicare, the New American Economy (NAE) has released a new video ad that… Read More
Welcome to Dayton: How Immigrants are Helping to Grow Dayton’s Economy and Reverse Population Decline
Welcome Dayton is a community initiative that reflects our country’s core philosophy: people with diverse backgrounds, skills and experiences fuel our nation’s success. The City of Dayton launched Welcome Dayton in 2011 to promote immigrant integration by encouraging business and economic development; ensuring access to education, health, and government… Read More
Interactive Map: How Will New Voters Impact Election Results
New American Economy developed an interactive map that allows users to adjust Hispanic and Asian voter turnout and party support in each state to explore how new Hispanic and Asian voters could impact the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The map uses expanded data from a research brief produced by… Read More
Immigrant Population Growth
Both the number and the share of immigrants in America are increasing, with the U.S. Census Bureau projecting that between 2027 and 2038 international migration will be the primary driver of U.S. population growth for the first time in two centuries.1 The trend is already underway. Between 1990 and 2014, the number of immigrants living in America more than doubled. By 2014, more than one in eight Americans were foreign-born. Immigrants play a particularly important role in California, where they make up more than one out of every four residents.
Sources:
1 U.S. Census Bureau, “International Migration is Projected to Become Primary Driver of U.S. Population Growth for First Time in Nearly Two Centuries,” press release (2013), accessed July 30, 2014. Available online.
Share of Population, Foreign-Born
Mitigating Baby Boomer Retirement
The ratio of seniors to working-age adults in America has remained relatively constant since 1980, at about 240 seniors for every 1,000 workers. With the Baby Boomers’ retirement, however, the ratio is poised to jump a stunning 67 percent in the next two decades, to 411 seniors for every 1,000 workers.2 Already, less than half the U.S.-born population is working-age, or between the ages of 25 and 64. Meanwhile, almost three-quarters of the foreign-born population fall into that age bracket, allowing them to make important contributions to both the labor force and U.S. tax coffers.
Sources:
2 Dowell Myers, “Immigrants’ Contributions in an Aging America,” Community Banking, no. Sum (2008): 3–5.
Age Breakdown of Select Populations, 2014
States with the Largest Gap Between Share of Native-Born and Foreign-Born Populations that are Working-Aged, 2014
Housing and Entitlement Contributions
Because immigrants are far more likely to be working-age, they play an important role contributing to the entitlement programs that help seniors as they age. One NAE study found that between 1996 and 2011 immigrants contributed $182.4 billion more to Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund—the core trust fund in the program—than was expended on their care. Immigrants also have made up roughly one in seven homebuyers in recent years, often purchasing the homes of Baby Boomers as they retire.
Amount Immigrants Contributed to Entitlement Programs, 2014
States where Immigrants Made up the Largest Share of Homebuyers, 2010-2014
Fueling Growth in New Destination States
Before 1990, nearly three-quarters of immigrants lived in one of six gateway states: California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Texas.3 By 2010, those states’ share had started to drop significantly, to 65 percent, as immigrants increasingly began settling in new-destination states, such as Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Washington. As immigrants move into new states, they help offset brain drain and population decline, often filling positions that would have remained vacant otherwise. The more than 10,000 immigrants that moved to North Dakota between 2010 and 2014, for instance, helped fill labor gaps created when locals took well-paid jobs during the shale oil boom.4
Sources:
3 The Pew Charitable Trusts, “U.S. Immigration: National and State Trends and Actions” (November 2013). Available online.
4 Jack Nicas, “North Dakota City Draws Foreign Workers,” Wall Street Journal, 2012, sec. Business. Available online.
States with Largest Percent Increase in Number of Immigrants, 2010-2014
Voting Power and Citizenship
As more immigrants naturalize and become eligible to vote, they will continue to gain power at the voting booth. Nationally, almost 20 million foreign-born citizens were eligible to vote in the 2016 election. By 2020, that figure is projected to rise to 21.2 million. In some states, foreign-born voters are already capable of deciding elections. In Nevada, for instance, almost 256,000 immigrants were eligible to vote in 2016, a number more than nine times higher than Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory in the state that year.
Eligible Immigrant Voters Versus Number of Votes that Decided Presidential Result in Key States, 2016
Immigrants Eligible to Naturalize in Selected States and the United States, 2017
Diversifying the Electorate
Although the white working class played a significant role in the 2016 election, demographic trends mean they will see their influence decline in future electoral contests. While only 11.2 percent of the current U.S. senior population identifies as Hispanic or Asian-American, 27.8 percent of those graduating from high school in the next decade do.5 This means that between 2015 and 2024, the share of the electorate that is white is projected to decline by 4.4 percent. The share that will be both white and working class will see even steeper declines, falling by 5.5 percent. Given this reality, politicians hoping to remain competitive in key states in the future will need to ensure that they do not ignore the needs of Hispanic and Asian voters, many of whom are immigrants.
Sources:
5 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates.
Projected Decline in the Share of Electorate that is White Working Class in Key States, 2015-2024
Make a contribution
Make a direct impact on the lives of immigrants.
