Voting and Demographics
The growth in the immigrant population has helped to strengthen and remake America over the last two decades. Today, as thousands of baby boomers retire each day, working-age immigrants are filling gaps in the labor market, paying billions of dollars in taxes that help our entitlement programs survive, and buying homes in communities that would otherwise be in decline. Millions of immigrants have also earned U.S. citizenship and the right to vote while millions more are estimated to be eligible to naturalize.
Latino, Millennial, Immigrant Entrepreneurs Play ‘Enormous’ Role in US Economy, Says SBA Administrator Maria Contreras-Sweet
U.S. Latinos have said job creation and fixing the economy is among their most important issues that should be addressed by politicians during the midterm election, according to Latino Decisions 2014 Election Eve Poll comprising of 4,200 voters. Another Latino Decisions poll about Latinos’ views toward the economy found 61 percent of… Read More
Letter: Welcome GOP candidates, now let’s talk issues
With Congressman Jeff Duncan and Citizens United hosting 2016 Republican hopefuls this weekend in Greenville at The Freedom Summit, Upstate residents are excited to see the 2016 presidential candidates visit our state. As a former state chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party, let me be the first to welcome… Read More
Lindsey Graham predicts GOP will lose White House bid unless it embraces immigration reform
Because there’s no one better to journey across that Long Bridge of Divisiveness to reach the Promised Land of Unity, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is goading the 2016 GOP presidential field, as well as Republican lawmakers, to embrace immigration reform. “If I were the president of the United States, I… Read More
Immigrants Are Good For Us
Immigration is one of the great polarizing issues in American politics. It is the issue that riles my conservative friends the most. They oppose anything that smacks of amnesty, open borders, or more people entering the country illegally. They argue that those people are prone to committing crimes, lazily devour… Read More
IMMIGRANTS CONTRIBUTE TO NATIONAL ECONOMY WHILE LAWMAKERS STRUGGLE WITH REFORM EFFORTS
WASHINGTON, D.C.–Immigrants in the United States started 28 percent of all new businesses in 2011 and businesses owned by immigrants employed approximately 4.7 million people in 2007, according to the Partnership for a New American Economy and the Fiscal Policy Institute. Although the immigrant population in Nebraska is significantly smaller… Read More
Young Republicans demand immigration reform
In 21st Century America, Democrats and Republicans rarely reach consensus. Our nation faces many pressing social and economic issues, yet bipartisanship is a word not readily associated with Washington, D.C. Polarizing policies on both sides of the aisle often prevent Congress from passing substantive legislation to enact meaningful reform. Fortunately,… Read More
GOP must embrace immigrants or fade from relevance
Elections are often more about perceptions than reality. Many voters form impressions based on accumulated images, words, and other messages that build up over the course of an election cycle and then act on those impressions. To some degree, choices are shaped by community and family. Without those influences, there… Read More
Richardson: Immigration reform imperative for growth
The March jobs report was a stubborn reminder that America’s economic recovery remains fragile. And while securing 61 consecutive months of job growth is an impressive accomplishment in the wake of the Great Recession, the disappointing report underscores just how important it is to deploy every tool we have to… Read More
McCain to GOP Hopefuls: Address Immigration or We Lose in 2016
Immigration reform supporter Sen. John McCain says the GOP risks losing the White House next year if it doesn’t wrestle with the contentious issue. “The reality is, is that we are losing support in the Hispanic community,” the Arizona Republican told reporters Tuesday, The Hill reports. “We need to address… Read More
Iowans must school candidates on immigration
Iowa Republican operative John Stineman visited our editorial board earlier this month to insist that caucus candidates move past immigration rhetoric and make real reform a caucus issue. We agreed with almost every word from Stineman, who also is full-time director of the Iowa Chamber Alliance, a group of the… Read More
Immigrant Population Growth
Both the number and the share of immigrants in America are increasing, with the U.S. Census Bureau projecting that between 2027 and 2038 international migration will be the primary driver of U.S. population growth for the first time in two centuries.1 The trend is already underway. Between 1990 and 2014, the number of immigrants living in America more than doubled. By 2014, more than one in eight Americans were foreign-born. Immigrants play a particularly important role in California, where they make up more than one out of every four residents.
Sources:
1 U.S. Census Bureau, “International Migration is Projected to Become Primary Driver of U.S. Population Growth for First Time in Nearly Two Centuries,” press release (2013), accessed July 30, 2014. Available online.
Share of Population, Foreign-Born
Mitigating Baby Boomer Retirement
The ratio of seniors to working-age adults in America has remained relatively constant since 1980, at about 240 seniors for every 1,000 workers. With the Baby Boomers’ retirement, however, the ratio is poised to jump a stunning 67 percent in the next two decades, to 411 seniors for every 1,000 workers.2 Already, less than half the U.S.-born population is working-age, or between the ages of 25 and 64. Meanwhile, almost three-quarters of the foreign-born population fall into that age bracket, allowing them to make important contributions to both the labor force and U.S. tax coffers.
Sources:
2 Dowell Myers, “Immigrants’ Contributions in an Aging America,” Community Banking, no. Sum (2008): 3–5.
Age Breakdown of Select Populations, 2014
States with the Largest Gap Between Share of Native-Born and Foreign-Born Populations that are Working-Aged, 2014
Housing and Entitlement Contributions
Because immigrants are far more likely to be working-age, they play an important role contributing to the entitlement programs that help seniors as they age. One NAE study found that between 1996 and 2011 immigrants contributed $182.4 billion more to Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund—the core trust fund in the program—than was expended on their care. Immigrants also have made up roughly one in seven homebuyers in recent years, often purchasing the homes of Baby Boomers as they retire.
Amount Immigrants Contributed to Entitlement Programs, 2014
States where Immigrants Made up the Largest Share of Homebuyers, 2010-2014
Fueling Growth in New Destination States
Before 1990, nearly three-quarters of immigrants lived in one of six gateway states: California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Texas.3 By 2010, those states’ share had started to drop significantly, to 65 percent, as immigrants increasingly began settling in new-destination states, such as Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Washington. As immigrants move into new states, they help offset brain drain and population decline, often filling positions that would have remained vacant otherwise. The more than 10,000 immigrants that moved to North Dakota between 2010 and 2014, for instance, helped fill labor gaps created when locals took well-paid jobs during the shale oil boom.4
Sources:
3 The Pew Charitable Trusts, “U.S. Immigration: National and State Trends and Actions” (November 2013). Available online.
4 Jack Nicas, “North Dakota City Draws Foreign Workers,” Wall Street Journal, 2012, sec. Business. Available online.
States with Largest Percent Increase in Number of Immigrants, 2010-2014
Voting Power and Citizenship
As more immigrants naturalize and become eligible to vote, they will continue to gain power at the voting booth. Nationally, almost 20 million foreign-born citizens were eligible to vote in the 2016 election. By 2020, that figure is projected to rise to 21.2 million. In some states, foreign-born voters are already capable of deciding elections. In Nevada, for instance, almost 256,000 immigrants were eligible to vote in 2016, a number more than nine times higher than Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory in the state that year.
Eligible Immigrant Voters Versus Number of Votes that Decided Presidential Result in Key States, 2016
Immigrants Eligible to Naturalize in Selected States and the United States, 2017
Diversifying the Electorate
Although the white working class played a significant role in the 2016 election, demographic trends mean they will see their influence decline in future electoral contests. While only 11.2 percent of the current U.S. senior population identifies as Hispanic or Asian-American, 27.8 percent of those graduating from high school in the next decade do.5 This means that between 2015 and 2024, the share of the electorate that is white is projected to decline by 4.4 percent. The share that will be both white and working class will see even steeper declines, falling by 5.5 percent. Given this reality, politicians hoping to remain competitive in key states in the future will need to ensure that they do not ignore the needs of Hispanic and Asian voters, many of whom are immigrants.
Sources:
5 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates.
Projected Decline in the Share of Electorate that is White Working Class in Key States, 2015-2024
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