Voting and Demographics
The growth in the immigrant population has helped to strengthen and remake America over the last two decades. Today, as thousands of baby boomers retire each day, working-age immigrants are filling gaps in the labor market, paying billions of dollars in taxes that help our entitlement programs survive, and buying homes in communities that would otherwise be in decline. Millions of immigrants have also earned U.S. citizenship and the right to vote while millions more are estimated to be eligible to naturalize.
Immigration reform will grow our economy
With the 2016 Presidential election in their sights, potential candidates have started their travels across the country to meet with American voters. And while meeting with the nation’s voters, there is one significant change that will likely stand out: the U.S. electorate is not what it once looked like. The… Read More
Scramble is on for coveted work visas
When Gaurav Patel was looking to hire an engineer for his medical device startup in Houston this year, he searched for an American citizen because the tiny company didn’t have the budget to sponsor a foreigner for a work visa. But though he cast a wide net, 80 percent of… Read More
Fellow conservatives, immigration reform is good policy and good politics: As I See It
Conservative politicians are at a critical point on the issue of immigration reform. Fixing our broken immigration system is one of the most significant challenges currently facing Congress and the White House. Obama’s trampling of the Constitution and his attempt to rule by decree, disgusting though it is, should not… Read More
Republicans need to act on immigration reform
Changing demographics in Wisconsin and the rest of the country are creating a political imperative for Republicans to act on immigration reform. A recent study by the Partnership for a New American Economy found that more than 12 million Hispanic and Asian residents will become eligible to vote by… Read More
A pathway to citizenship leads to the White House
When I campaigned for a seat in the Arizona House of Representatives, I vowed to focus on helping local businesses thrive by creating jobs and a pro-growth environment. In order to best deliver on that promise, Congress must address the broken immigration system with permanent solutions that foster economic growth. Read More
Editorial: The numbers argue for immigration reform
The image drawn by those who wish to reduce the number of immigrants who come to the United States, and particularly those who wish to expel the millions who have come or remained here without permission, is that of a home which one or more people have illegally entered,… Read More
Immigration reform will grow our economy
With the 2016 presidential election in their sights, potential candidates have started their travels across the country to meet with American voters. And while meeting with the nation’s voters, there is one significant change that will likely stand out: the U.S. electorate is not what it once looked like. The… Read More
Republican donors put muscle into immigration reform — Dems swipe at Schock over office décor
GOP MONEYMEN PUSH IMMIGRATION REFORM: It’s a huge divide in the Republican Party: The GOP donor community believes that only Republican presidential hopefuls who embrace immigration reform stand a chance at winning the presidency in 2016 — and embracing immigration reform is necessary for the party’s long-term health — top… Read More
Top GOP donors: Be like Bush on immigration
Top Republican donors and party strategists are urging prospective 2016 GOP candidates to follow former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s lead on immigration reform. Spencer Zwick, the finance chairman for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential run, was among the GOP heavyhitters on a conference call Tuesday who praised Bush for taking a… Read More
GOP Donors Provide Cover for Bush on Immigration
A trio of Republicans who hold sizable sway over the purse strings in the party issued an explicit warning to their aspiring field of presidential candidates Tuesday: Support immigration reform or forget about receiving the big checks necessary to finance a White House campaign. Three multimillionaire… Read More
Immigrant Population Growth
Both the number and the share of immigrants in America are increasing, with the U.S. Census Bureau projecting that between 2027 and 2038 international migration will be the primary driver of U.S. population growth for the first time in two centuries.1 The trend is already underway. Between 1990 and 2014, the number of immigrants living in America more than doubled. By 2014, more than one in eight Americans were foreign-born. Immigrants play a particularly important role in California, where they make up more than one out of every four residents.
Sources:
1 U.S. Census Bureau, “International Migration is Projected to Become Primary Driver of U.S. Population Growth for First Time in Nearly Two Centuries,” press release (2013), accessed July 30, 2014. Available online.
Share of Population, Foreign-Born
Mitigating Baby Boomer Retirement
The ratio of seniors to working-age adults in America has remained relatively constant since 1980, at about 240 seniors for every 1,000 workers. With the Baby Boomers’ retirement, however, the ratio is poised to jump a stunning 67 percent in the next two decades, to 411 seniors for every 1,000 workers.2 Already, less than half the U.S.-born population is working-age, or between the ages of 25 and 64. Meanwhile, almost three-quarters of the foreign-born population fall into that age bracket, allowing them to make important contributions to both the labor force and U.S. tax coffers.
Sources:
2 Dowell Myers, “Immigrants’ Contributions in an Aging America,” Community Banking, no. Sum (2008): 3–5.
Age Breakdown of Select Populations, 2014
States with the Largest Gap Between Share of Native-Born and Foreign-Born Populations that are Working-Aged, 2014
Housing and Entitlement Contributions
Because immigrants are far more likely to be working-age, they play an important role contributing to the entitlement programs that help seniors as they age. One NAE study found that between 1996 and 2011 immigrants contributed $182.4 billion more to Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund—the core trust fund in the program—than was expended on their care. Immigrants also have made up roughly one in seven homebuyers in recent years, often purchasing the homes of Baby Boomers as they retire.
Amount Immigrants Contributed to Entitlement Programs, 2014
States where Immigrants Made up the Largest Share of Homebuyers, 2010-2014
Fueling Growth in New Destination States
Before 1990, nearly three-quarters of immigrants lived in one of six gateway states: California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Texas.3 By 2010, those states’ share had started to drop significantly, to 65 percent, as immigrants increasingly began settling in new-destination states, such as Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Washington. As immigrants move into new states, they help offset brain drain and population decline, often filling positions that would have remained vacant otherwise. The more than 10,000 immigrants that moved to North Dakota between 2010 and 2014, for instance, helped fill labor gaps created when locals took well-paid jobs during the shale oil boom.4
Sources:
3 The Pew Charitable Trusts, “U.S. Immigration: National and State Trends and Actions” (November 2013). Available online.
4 Jack Nicas, “North Dakota City Draws Foreign Workers,” Wall Street Journal, 2012, sec. Business. Available online.
States with Largest Percent Increase in Number of Immigrants, 2010-2014
Voting Power and Citizenship
As more immigrants naturalize and become eligible to vote, they will continue to gain power at the voting booth. Nationally, almost 20 million foreign-born citizens were eligible to vote in the 2016 election. By 2020, that figure is projected to rise to 21.2 million. In some states, foreign-born voters are already capable of deciding elections. In Nevada, for instance, almost 256,000 immigrants were eligible to vote in 2016, a number more than nine times higher than Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory in the state that year.
Eligible Immigrant Voters Versus Number of Votes that Decided Presidential Result in Key States, 2016
Immigrants Eligible to Naturalize in Selected States and the United States, 2017
Diversifying the Electorate
Although the white working class played a significant role in the 2016 election, demographic trends mean they will see their influence decline in future electoral contests. While only 11.2 percent of the current U.S. senior population identifies as Hispanic or Asian-American, 27.8 percent of those graduating from high school in the next decade do.5 This means that between 2015 and 2024, the share of the electorate that is white is projected to decline by 4.4 percent. The share that will be both white and working class will see even steeper declines, falling by 5.5 percent. Given this reality, politicians hoping to remain competitive in key states in the future will need to ensure that they do not ignore the needs of Hispanic and Asian voters, many of whom are immigrants.
Sources:
5 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates.
Projected Decline in the Share of Electorate that is White Working Class in Key States, 2015-2024
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