Voting and Demographics
The growth in the immigrant population has helped to strengthen and remake America over the last two decades. Today, as thousands of baby boomers retire each day, working-age immigrants are filling gaps in the labor market, paying billions of dollars in taxes that help our entitlement programs survive, and buying homes in communities that would otherwise be in decline. Millions of immigrants have also earned U.S. citizenship and the right to vote while millions more are estimated to be eligible to naturalize.
Poll: Immigration isn’t top 2016 campaign issue for NC Hispanic voters
North Carolina Hispanic voters surveyed in a recent poll say immigration will be less important than jobs when they pick a presidential candidate in 2016. Partnership for a New American Economy – a coalition of business leaders and mayors founded by Michael Bloomberg and Rupert Murdoch – polled Hispanics in… Read More
Viewpoint: Immigration reform in essence an economic issue
If every time you tried to follow a process you came out with a terrible result, you’d probably figure that there was something wrong with the process. It doesn’t matter whether that process is a recipe for making chili, a set of instructions for assembling a piece of furniture, or… Read More
Cory Gardner’s immigration vote closely watched
In a symbolic vote on immigration, Republican U.S. Sen.-elect Cory Gardner of Yuma on Thursday backed blocking the president from enacting an executive order sparing millions from deportation. Gardner, who cast his vote as a member of the U.S. House, said he simply could… Read More
The GOP’s Latino problem is still very real
President Obama’s wins in the 2008 and 2012 were marked by extremely strong performances among Latinos — performances that (initially at least) led GOP leaders to call for their party to get right on immigration reform. The GOP, you see, doesn’t want to keep getting drubbed among Latinos. Because it wants to… Read More
New Poll Finds Immigration a Gateway Issue for Hispanic Voters
The Partnership for a New American Economy new poll of national and swing state Hispanic voters tests how the issue of immigration influences Hispanic voting patterns. The poll found that while Immigration is not the top issue for Hispanic voters – it trails the issue of Jobs and… Read More
Hispanic Voters Think Opposing Immigration is Disqualifier, Poll Says
Poll confirms findings of GOP “autopsy” on 2012 election Immigration reform is a threshold issue for most Hispanic voters, a new poll out Thursday finds, putting the Republican Party at a disadvantage heading into 2016. The poll conducted by Democratic and Republican pollsters… Read More
Time for Republicans to address immigration
One of the greatest challenges currently facing our country is a broken immigration system. Designed decades ago, these outdated policies have far outlived their effectiveness. The legal path to American citizenship is plagued with high costs, excessive administrative burdens, and can actually take three to ten years. The… Read More
St. Anthony: Business is making case for immigration reform
The politics that has stalled comprehensive immigration reform hurts affected businesses, workers and communities that benefit from the economic, cultural and human benefits. President Obama is using his presidential authority to grant work permits to up to 5 million immigrants living illegally, or undocumented, in the United States,… Read More
Immigration reform should be a matter for Congress
President Obama must be wishing he had passed immigration reform in his first year as he promised. Likewise, Republicans must be wishing that they had passed legislation six months ago instead of having it drag into the presidential primary season, which is beginning. Both sides have boxed themselves… Read More
Obama Immigration Order to Impact Millions, Includes Provisions for High-Skilled Workers
Nov. 21 — President Barack Obama Nov. 20 unveiled a large-scale immigration plan that includes several measures designed to keep highly skilled immigrant workers in the U.S. as well as deportation protection for an estimated 5 million undocumented parents of U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents. Read More
Immigrant Population Growth
Both the number and the share of immigrants in America are increasing, with the U.S. Census Bureau projecting that between 2027 and 2038 international migration will be the primary driver of U.S. population growth for the first time in two centuries.1 The trend is already underway. Between 1990 and 2014, the number of immigrants living in America more than doubled. By 2014, more than one in eight Americans were foreign-born. Immigrants play a particularly important role in California, where they make up more than one out of every four residents.
Sources:
1 U.S. Census Bureau, “International Migration is Projected to Become Primary Driver of U.S. Population Growth for First Time in Nearly Two Centuries,” press release (2013), accessed July 30, 2014. Available online.
Share of Population, Foreign-Born
Mitigating Baby Boomer Retirement
The ratio of seniors to working-age adults in America has remained relatively constant since 1980, at about 240 seniors for every 1,000 workers. With the Baby Boomers’ retirement, however, the ratio is poised to jump a stunning 67 percent in the next two decades, to 411 seniors for every 1,000 workers.2 Already, less than half the U.S.-born population is working-age, or between the ages of 25 and 64. Meanwhile, almost three-quarters of the foreign-born population fall into that age bracket, allowing them to make important contributions to both the labor force and U.S. tax coffers.
Sources:
2 Dowell Myers, “Immigrants’ Contributions in an Aging America,” Community Banking, no. Sum (2008): 3–5.
Age Breakdown of Select Populations, 2014
States with the Largest Gap Between Share of Native-Born and Foreign-Born Populations that are Working-Aged, 2014
Housing and Entitlement Contributions
Because immigrants are far more likely to be working-age, they play an important role contributing to the entitlement programs that help seniors as they age. One NAE study found that between 1996 and 2011 immigrants contributed $182.4 billion more to Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund—the core trust fund in the program—than was expended on their care. Immigrants also have made up roughly one in seven homebuyers in recent years, often purchasing the homes of Baby Boomers as they retire.
Amount Immigrants Contributed to Entitlement Programs, 2014
States where Immigrants Made up the Largest Share of Homebuyers, 2010-2014
Fueling Growth in New Destination States
Before 1990, nearly three-quarters of immigrants lived in one of six gateway states: California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Texas.3 By 2010, those states’ share had started to drop significantly, to 65 percent, as immigrants increasingly began settling in new-destination states, such as Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Washington. As immigrants move into new states, they help offset brain drain and population decline, often filling positions that would have remained vacant otherwise. The more than 10,000 immigrants that moved to North Dakota between 2010 and 2014, for instance, helped fill labor gaps created when locals took well-paid jobs during the shale oil boom.4
Sources:
3 The Pew Charitable Trusts, “U.S. Immigration: National and State Trends and Actions” (November 2013). Available online.
4 Jack Nicas, “North Dakota City Draws Foreign Workers,” Wall Street Journal, 2012, sec. Business. Available online.
States with Largest Percent Increase in Number of Immigrants, 2010-2014
Voting Power and Citizenship
As more immigrants naturalize and become eligible to vote, they will continue to gain power at the voting booth. Nationally, almost 20 million foreign-born citizens were eligible to vote in the 2016 election. By 2020, that figure is projected to rise to 21.2 million. In some states, foreign-born voters are already capable of deciding elections. In Nevada, for instance, almost 256,000 immigrants were eligible to vote in 2016, a number more than nine times higher than Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory in the state that year.
Eligible Immigrant Voters Versus Number of Votes that Decided Presidential Result in Key States, 2016
Immigrants Eligible to Naturalize in Selected States and the United States, 2017
Diversifying the Electorate
Although the white working class played a significant role in the 2016 election, demographic trends mean they will see their influence decline in future electoral contests. While only 11.2 percent of the current U.S. senior population identifies as Hispanic or Asian-American, 27.8 percent of those graduating from high school in the next decade do.5 This means that between 2015 and 2024, the share of the electorate that is white is projected to decline by 4.4 percent. The share that will be both white and working class will see even steeper declines, falling by 5.5 percent. Given this reality, politicians hoping to remain competitive in key states in the future will need to ensure that they do not ignore the needs of Hispanic and Asian voters, many of whom are immigrants.
Sources:
5 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates.
Projected Decline in the Share of Electorate that is White Working Class in Key States, 2015-2024
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