Voting and Demographics
The growth in the immigrant population has helped to strengthen and remake America over the last two decades. Today, as thousands of baby boomers retire each day, working-age immigrants are filling gaps in the labor market, paying billions of dollars in taxes that help our entitlement programs survive, and buying homes in communities that would otherwise be in decline. Millions of immigrants have also earned U.S. citizenship and the right to vote while millions more are estimated to be eligible to naturalize.
America’s Assimilating Hispanics
The Wall Street Journal June 17, 2013 As immigration reform moves through Congress, one claim by opponents is that this time immigration is different because the country’s latest arrivals aren’t assimilating. On the contrary, however, the evidence overwhelmingly shows that today’s immigrants are acculturating and moving up the economic ladder… Read More
Polls: Huge Support for Immigration Reform
Politico June 13, 2013 Immigration reform continues to attract broad public support as the Gang of Eight compromise legislation moves through the Senate, according to a huge raft of polling conducted for three pro-reform groups: the Partnership for a New American Economy, the Alliance for Citizenship and Republicans for Immigration… Read More
New Hope on Immigration
The New York Times November 17, 2012 Funny how quickly some principles collapse when given the right kind of shove. One day, the Republican Party is rock-ribbed restrictionist, dedicated to the proposition that unauthorized immigrants are an invading army of job stealers, welfare moochers and criminals whose only acceptable… Read More
GOP Talks About Immigration Reform But Will It Change Its Tone?
The Huffington Post November 13, 2012 We made history. After all the doubts and questions about Latino voter turnout, the fastest-growing minority group in the country squashed all hearsay and pundit-talk in record numbers, carrying President Obama to reelection and giving other Democratic candidates the push they needed. Now,… Read More
Towards an Intelligent Immigration Policy
National Review Online November 12, 2012 Over the past few years, some in the conservative movement have allowed a legitimate concern over border security to become conflated with anti-immigration politics. As the recent election shows, this confusion threatens to saddle the Republican party with a losing platform that will… Read More
Immigrant Children Scoring High in STEM and Overall Achievement, Notes Houston Immigration Lawyer
Law Firm Newswire November 7, 2012 Houston, TX (Law Firm Newswire) November 7, 2012 – According to a new study by John Hopkins University, immigrant children who emigrated to the U.S. prior to their teenage years score higher in school engagement and academic achievements than U.S-born kids. The study… Read More
Immigration and American Jobs
New York Times October 19, 2012 Of all the economic dynamics buffeting the American middle class, immigration might seem the easiest to explain: as millions of poor immigrants from Latin America poured illegally into the country seeking work, the conventional wisdom goes, they competed with more expensive American workers,… Read More
Study Shows Immigration May Boost St. Louis Economy
St. Louis Public Radio October 17, 2012 A Saint Louis University economist thinks he has found a key to growth for St. Louis. Professor Jack Strauss presented his findings this afternoon from an economic study that shows a direct correlation between an increasing immigrant population and economic growth. The… Read More
DREAMing of Economic Growth
Center for American Progress October 12, 2012 During an election year dominated by concerns about our economy, policymakers and voters easily draw connections between domestic issues, such as education, Medicare, or tax policies, and the health of our economy. But so far public discourse hasn’t connected the dots between… Read More
Embrace Hispanics’ Role In Strengthening Our Economy
The Tennessean October 11, 2012 As our country celebrates Hispanic Heritage Month, it’s not difficult to find areas where this nation continues to benefit from the significant contributions of the Hispanic immigrants who’ve come to our shores. Just last week, Americans witnessed Venezuelan-born Miguel Cabrera capture baseball’s Triple Crown,… Read More
Immigrant Population Growth
Both the number and the share of immigrants in America are increasing, with the U.S. Census Bureau projecting that between 2027 and 2038 international migration will be the primary driver of U.S. population growth for the first time in two centuries.1 The trend is already underway. Between 1990 and 2014, the number of immigrants living in America more than doubled. By 2014, more than one in eight Americans were foreign-born. Immigrants play a particularly important role in California, where they make up more than one out of every four residents.
Sources:
1 U.S. Census Bureau, “International Migration is Projected to Become Primary Driver of U.S. Population Growth for First Time in Nearly Two Centuries,” press release (2013), accessed July 30, 2014. Available online.
Share of Population, Foreign-Born
Mitigating Baby Boomer Retirement
The ratio of seniors to working-age adults in America has remained relatively constant since 1980, at about 240 seniors for every 1,000 workers. With the Baby Boomers’ retirement, however, the ratio is poised to jump a stunning 67 percent in the next two decades, to 411 seniors for every 1,000 workers.2 Already, less than half the U.S.-born population is working-age, or between the ages of 25 and 64. Meanwhile, almost three-quarters of the foreign-born population fall into that age bracket, allowing them to make important contributions to both the labor force and U.S. tax coffers.
Sources:
2 Dowell Myers, “Immigrants’ Contributions in an Aging America,” Community Banking, no. Sum (2008): 3–5.
Age Breakdown of Select Populations, 2014
States with the Largest Gap Between Share of Native-Born and Foreign-Born Populations that are Working-Aged, 2014
Housing and Entitlement Contributions
Because immigrants are far more likely to be working-age, they play an important role contributing to the entitlement programs that help seniors as they age. One NAE study found that between 1996 and 2011 immigrants contributed $182.4 billion more to Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund—the core trust fund in the program—than was expended on their care. Immigrants also have made up roughly one in seven homebuyers in recent years, often purchasing the homes of Baby Boomers as they retire.
Amount Immigrants Contributed to Entitlement Programs, 2014
States where Immigrants Made up the Largest Share of Homebuyers, 2010-2014
Fueling Growth in New Destination States
Before 1990, nearly three-quarters of immigrants lived in one of six gateway states: California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Texas.3 By 2010, those states’ share had started to drop significantly, to 65 percent, as immigrants increasingly began settling in new-destination states, such as Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Washington. As immigrants move into new states, they help offset brain drain and population decline, often filling positions that would have remained vacant otherwise. The more than 10,000 immigrants that moved to North Dakota between 2010 and 2014, for instance, helped fill labor gaps created when locals took well-paid jobs during the shale oil boom.4
Sources:
3 The Pew Charitable Trusts, “U.S. Immigration: National and State Trends and Actions” (November 2013). Available online.
4 Jack Nicas, “North Dakota City Draws Foreign Workers,” Wall Street Journal, 2012, sec. Business. Available online.
States with Largest Percent Increase in Number of Immigrants, 2010-2014
Voting Power and Citizenship
As more immigrants naturalize and become eligible to vote, they will continue to gain power at the voting booth. Nationally, almost 20 million foreign-born citizens were eligible to vote in the 2016 election. By 2020, that figure is projected to rise to 21.2 million. In some states, foreign-born voters are already capable of deciding elections. In Nevada, for instance, almost 256,000 immigrants were eligible to vote in 2016, a number more than nine times higher than Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory in the state that year.
Eligible Immigrant Voters Versus Number of Votes that Decided Presidential Result in Key States, 2016
Immigrants Eligible to Naturalize in Selected States and the United States, 2017
Diversifying the Electorate
Although the white working class played a significant role in the 2016 election, demographic trends mean they will see their influence decline in future electoral contests. While only 11.2 percent of the current U.S. senior population identifies as Hispanic or Asian-American, 27.8 percent of those graduating from high school in the next decade do.5 This means that between 2015 and 2024, the share of the electorate that is white is projected to decline by 4.4 percent. The share that will be both white and working class will see even steeper declines, falling by 5.5 percent. Given this reality, politicians hoping to remain competitive in key states in the future will need to ensure that they do not ignore the needs of Hispanic and Asian voters, many of whom are immigrants.
Sources:
5 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates.
Projected Decline in the Share of Electorate that is White Working Class in Key States, 2015-2024
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