Voting and Demographics
The growth in the immigrant population has helped to strengthen and remake America over the last two decades. Today, as thousands of baby boomers retire each day, working-age immigrants are filling gaps in the labor market, paying billions of dollars in taxes that help our entitlement programs survive, and buying homes in communities that would otherwise be in decline. Millions of immigrants have also earned U.S. citizenship and the right to vote while millions more are estimated to be eligible to naturalize.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Record gains by Latinos in Congress contradict narrative
President Donald Trump’s victory last year was widely understood to challenge predictions of a coming surge in Democratic-leaning Latino voters that would forever alter the American electorate. But with National Hispanic Heritage Month underway, some Latino political leaders are pointing to Congress to argue that Trump’s win was an anomaly. Read More
One Collateral Risk of Eliminating DACA: Angering an Important Pool of Voters
With the announcement last week that the administration planned to wind down the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or DACA, much of the media attention turned to the roughly 800,000 young people who have received DACA status since the program’s creation in 2012. Brought to the country as children,… Read More
Pork Industry Could Face Shutdowns Without Immigrant Labor
U.S. pork producers add $39 billion annually to the nation’s economy and support 550,000 jobs. But maintaining this output is a struggle, says the industry, due to critical labor shortages. Without a viable workforce, “production costs will continue to increase, leading to higher food prices for consumers,”… Read More
An Open Letter from 1,470 Economists on Immigration
p.article__date { display:none; } Dear Mr. President, Majority Leader McConnell, Minority Leader Schumer, Speaker Ryan, and Minority Leader Pelosi: The undersigned economists represent a broad swath of political and economic views. Among us are Republicans and Democrats alike. Some of us favor free markets while others have championed… Read More
A Sociologist Does the Math on Immigration Reform
Filiz Garip is fascinated by the unintended consequences of public policy. Take border security. “When you propose something like a wall, it feels like a great solution,” says Garip, a sociology professor at Cornell University. But her research suggests otherwise. Consider that in 1965 there were… Read More
Who Will Care for Our Seniors?
Between 2000 and 2030, America’s elderly population is expected to more than double from 35 million to 71.5 million. This demographic shift will put enormous pressure on the U.S. healthcare system, which is already strapped for workers. A new report by New American Economy (NAE), Who Will Care for… Read More
Brought to U.S. as a Child, a Jockey’s Daughter Wants to Work Even as Immigration Policy Impedes Her Efforts
In many ways, Maria Rojas, a senior education major at Northern Kentucky University, is like many ambitious young Americans. She’s president of her co-ed fraternity, Alpha Psi Lambda, and plans on becoming an elementary school teacher. “I’ve always loved teaching ever since I was a little girl, when I would… Read More
City Planner Sees Iowa Towns Get an Economic Boost From Immigrants
While studying immigration as an undergraduate at Iowa State University, Madeline Sturms toured a Tyson Foods meatpacking plant in Perry, Iowa. She saw that Tyson Foods employed mostly Latino immigrants who worked long hours at difficult jobs, such as those slaughtering animals on the “kill floor.” She also… Read More
Nashville Councilman Recounts His Immigrant Past and Shows Just How Much Determination Can Make a Difference
It was a fire in his house that finally convinced Fabian Bedne, now a Nashville councilman and part-owner of an architectural firm that generates up to a quarter of a million dollars in annual business, to become a U.S. citizen. Afterward, he says, “everyone in the community was so… Read More
Member of Trump’s Hispanic Advisory Committee Says It’s Time to Legalize Undocumented Immigrants
For nearly all his life, Mario Rodriguez has been a champion of the Hispanic immigrant community: He’s in support of legalizing the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States. He speaks out against deportation, which he says breaks up families and causes… Read More
Immigrant Population Growth
Both the number and the share of immigrants in America are increasing, with the U.S. Census Bureau projecting that between 2027 and 2038 international migration will be the primary driver of U.S. population growth for the first time in two centuries.1 The trend is already underway. Between 1990 and 2014, the number of immigrants living in America more than doubled. By 2014, more than one in eight Americans were foreign-born. Immigrants play a particularly important role in California, where they make up more than one out of every four residents.
Sources:
1 U.S. Census Bureau, “International Migration is Projected to Become Primary Driver of U.S. Population Growth for First Time in Nearly Two Centuries,” press release (2013), accessed July 30, 2014. Available online.
Share of Population, Foreign-Born
Mitigating Baby Boomer Retirement
The ratio of seniors to working-age adults in America has remained relatively constant since 1980, at about 240 seniors for every 1,000 workers. With the Baby Boomers’ retirement, however, the ratio is poised to jump a stunning 67 percent in the next two decades, to 411 seniors for every 1,000 workers.2 Already, less than half the U.S.-born population is working-age, or between the ages of 25 and 64. Meanwhile, almost three-quarters of the foreign-born population fall into that age bracket, allowing them to make important contributions to both the labor force and U.S. tax coffers.
Sources:
2 Dowell Myers, “Immigrants’ Contributions in an Aging America,” Community Banking, no. Sum (2008): 3–5.
Age Breakdown of Select Populations, 2014
States with the Largest Gap Between Share of Native-Born and Foreign-Born Populations that are Working-Aged, 2014
Housing and Entitlement Contributions
Because immigrants are far more likely to be working-age, they play an important role contributing to the entitlement programs that help seniors as they age. One NAE study found that between 1996 and 2011 immigrants contributed $182.4 billion more to Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund—the core trust fund in the program—than was expended on their care. Immigrants also have made up roughly one in seven homebuyers in recent years, often purchasing the homes of Baby Boomers as they retire.
Amount Immigrants Contributed to Entitlement Programs, 2014
States where Immigrants Made up the Largest Share of Homebuyers, 2010-2014
Fueling Growth in New Destination States
Before 1990, nearly three-quarters of immigrants lived in one of six gateway states: California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Texas.3 By 2010, those states’ share had started to drop significantly, to 65 percent, as immigrants increasingly began settling in new-destination states, such as Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Washington. As immigrants move into new states, they help offset brain drain and population decline, often filling positions that would have remained vacant otherwise. The more than 10,000 immigrants that moved to North Dakota between 2010 and 2014, for instance, helped fill labor gaps created when locals took well-paid jobs during the shale oil boom.4
Sources:
3 The Pew Charitable Trusts, “U.S. Immigration: National and State Trends and Actions” (November 2013). Available online.
4 Jack Nicas, “North Dakota City Draws Foreign Workers,” Wall Street Journal, 2012, sec. Business. Available online.
States with Largest Percent Increase in Number of Immigrants, 2010-2014
Voting Power and Citizenship
As more immigrants naturalize and become eligible to vote, they will continue to gain power at the voting booth. Nationally, almost 20 million foreign-born citizens were eligible to vote in the 2016 election. By 2020, that figure is projected to rise to 21.2 million. In some states, foreign-born voters are already capable of deciding elections. In Nevada, for instance, almost 256,000 immigrants were eligible to vote in 2016, a number more than nine times higher than Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory in the state that year.
Eligible Immigrant Voters Versus Number of Votes that Decided Presidential Result in Key States, 2016
Immigrants Eligible to Naturalize in Selected States and the United States, 2017
Diversifying the Electorate
Although the white working class played a significant role in the 2016 election, demographic trends mean they will see their influence decline in future electoral contests. While only 11.2 percent of the current U.S. senior population identifies as Hispanic or Asian-American, 27.8 percent of those graduating from high school in the next decade do.5 This means that between 2015 and 2024, the share of the electorate that is white is projected to decline by 4.4 percent. The share that will be both white and working class will see even steeper declines, falling by 5.5 percent. Given this reality, politicians hoping to remain competitive in key states in the future will need to ensure that they do not ignore the needs of Hispanic and Asian voters, many of whom are immigrants.
Sources:
5 2013 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates.
Projected Decline in the Share of Electorate that is White Working Class in Key States, 2015-2024
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