Election Day is now less than two weeks away. Among registered voters, the vast majority of minds have been made up—and adding to the sense of urgency, tens of millions have already voted. With record low numbers of undecided voters left to convince, some pundits say that energizing and activating unregistered eligible voters may be the surest way for the campaigns to make any further gains. This week, we continue our election-related data analysis by looking at unregistered voters in key states, finding that millions of unregistered voters still have time to register and vote in the 2020 presidential election.
While the deadline to register has passed in many states, 7 out of 13 swing states allow for same-day registration on Election Day or during early voting, including Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Focusing on these 7 swing states with same-day registration (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Wisconsin) to determine how many unregistered voters could still participate in this year’s election. We combined our recent data on the changing electorate in swing states with voter data from the 2008-2018 Current Population Survey to forecast the registration rates of different segments of the population in the 7 swing states
The data show that significant numbers of eligible voters are likely still unregistered in these key states:
- In the 7 swing states that allow for same-day registration, there are more than 572,000 unregistered Hispanic voters, including 186,000 in Nevada; almost 126,000 in North Carolina, which allows for in-person registration during early voting; and more than 101,000 in Michigan.
- There are more than 980,000 unregistered Black or African American voters across the 7 swing states, including more than 466,000 in North Carolina and almost 292,000 in Michigan.
- There are also almost 305,000 unregistered Asian voters spread across the 7 swing states, including in Nevada (77,400), Michigan, (63,800), and Minnesota (58,700).
- While we expect there to be almost 11.8 million registered immigrant voters this year–an all-time high–nearly 40 percent of all eligible immigrant voters nationwide remain unregistered. In the 7 swing states the share of eligible immigrant voters that remain unregistered ranges from 40.6 percent in Nevada, to 28.0 percent in North Carolina.
- In some swing states that allow for same-day registration, unregistered immigrant voters form a sizable bloc of untapped electoral power, including in Michigan (99,800), Nevada (84,800), and North Carolina (56,200).
Table 1: Number of Unregistered Voters in Swing States with Same-Day Voter Registration Source: 2018 American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample; 2008-2018 Current Population Survey, Voting Supplement; National Conference of State Legislatures, 2020; New York Times, 2016.
State
Non-Hispanic White
Black / African American
Asian
Hispanic
Other
Total
2016 Margin
Iowa
516,200
18,800
15,700
32,500
12,400
595,600
147,314
Michigan
1,484,500
291,700
63,800
101,000
61,700
2,002,800
13,080
Minnesota
745,700
6,800
58,700
46,600
38,100
949,900
44,470
Nevada
356,000
66,700
77,400
186,400
36,800
723,300
26,434
New Hampshire
236,800
3,100
7,000
11,400
6,400
264,600
2,701
North Carolina
1,283,300
466,100
51,200
125,800
77,600
2,004,000
177,009
Wisconsin
836,400
73,000
31,100
68,600
29,300
1,038,500
27,257
Table 2: Unregistered Immigrant Voters in Swing States Sources: 2018 American Community Survey; 2008-2018 Current Population Survey, Voting Supplement. Totals and shares may not match exactly due to rounding.
State
Immigrant Eligible Voters
Share of Immigrant Eligible Voters, Unregistered
Number of Unregistered Immigrant Voters
Iowa
48,900
35.0%
17,100
Michigan
264,100
37.8%
99,800
Minnesota
145,000
35.5%
51,500
Nevada
208,700
40.6%
84,800
New Hampshire
34,200
31.5%
10,800
North Carolina
200,400
28.0%
56,200
Wisconsin
90,700
29.0%
26,300
